Assessing the Resilience of Iraq’s Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract

This study investigates the resilience of Iraq's water sector to climate change, given the vulnerability of water resources to shifting weather patterns. Analyzing data from the National Center for Water Management, we examine annual and monthly variations in water supplies from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Results indicate significant fluctuations in annual income, ranging from 30 to 93 billion cubic meters, suggesting pronounced year-to-year variability. Moreover, disparities in river flow between the Tigris and Euphrates are observed, with implications for regional water availability. Temperature and precipitation trends in key cities—Mosul, Baghdad, Rutba, and Basra—are analyzed, revealing rising temperatures and declining precipitation across all regions. Notably, Mosul and Rutba experience lower temperatures but higher total precipitation compared to Baghdad and Basra. Despite these differences, overall precipitation is decreasing. With Iraq's population projected to grow by 1% annually, understanding the resilience of its water sector to climate change is critical for addressing future challenges in agriculture and food security. This study underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources in Iraq.